The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high last Friday for a simple reason: the world's most valuable company once again set a new share price record since May.

NVIDIA (NVDA) accounts for 13% of the Nasdaq index weight and 8% of the S&P 500 index weight. On Friday the stock rose 1.3%, ending a seven-week sideways consolidation. This followed a closely watched meeting between President Trump and a group of executives he called leaders in the "superintelligence" field.

After this rally, the semiconductor company led by Jensen Huang has a market capitalization approaching $5.7 trillion. Based on NVIDIA options trading prices, the company will likely break through the $6 trillion market cap threshold by the end of this month, which is a bullish signal for stock bulls.

According to market makers' pricing of NVIDIA option Delta values (Delta measures the sensitivity of an option's price relative to the underlying stock price), from now until the end of this month, the probability of NVIDIA's market cap reaching $6 trillion is about 50%; the probability of reaching this milestone this week is 13%; and the probability of achieving it before December 18 is about 67%.

The options market also implies that before November 20, the probability of NVIDIA hitting a $7 trillion market cap is about one in sixteen. Based on the current total share count, the stock price would need to reach $248 to achieve that market cap threshold.

Ben Emons, Managing Director at Goldline Asset Management, said in a client research note last week: "NVIDIA's announcement of a stock buyback plan is a major highlight. A buyback is not just a cash dividend, but a capital allocation move that signals the company's confidence in long-term AI demand."

Important note: when using Delta to estimate market-implied probabilities, the possibility of an equally sized reverse decline in the stock price also exists. Although NVIDIA broadly fits this pattern, Barchart data shows that the implied volatility of some of the stock's current call options is higher than that of put options with equivalent strike conditions. This call skew phenomenon indicates that traders are inclined to hedge against upward price movements.