The final day of the National Day "Golden Week" holiday has arrived. Looking back at the entire holiday period, overseas markets generally performed steadily, with no obvious "black swan" events and no particularly unexpected positive catalysts. In terms of performance across major asset classes, US stocks continued to set new records, Hong Kong stocks fell first before recovering, while crude oil and gold swung back and forth throughout the holiday.

So, after a "quiet" National Day holiday, how will A-shares perform once trading resumes? Will they deliver the "good start" that investors are hoping for?

Global asset scan: oil and gold swing, US stocks at record highs

During the National Day period, global asset performance was clearly divergent. US stocks repeatedly set new all-time highs over consecutive days. On the evening of October 6 Beijing time, the three major US stock indices opened collectively higher. However, in the early morning of October 7, several Federal Reserve officials made remarks about interest rate hikes, and the three major US indices trimmed their gains by Tuesday's close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.45%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.58%. Among them, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 set new closing highs, with the former at 27,599.89 points and the latter at 7,818.93 points.

The Hong Kong stock market during this holiday followed a pattern of declining first and then stabilizing. On October 6, near the end of the holiday, Hong Kong stocks rebounded collectively, with multiple sectors strengthening including AI large models, software, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and real estate, and all three major indices closed higher. The Hang Seng Index rose 1% to 24,280.56 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 0.96% to 8,128.97 points. On October 7, Hong Kong stocks opened lower.

Meanwhile, crude oil and gold fell rapidly toward the end of the holiday. On October 6, international oil prices dropped sharply in a short period, with Brent crude futures falling below $100 per barrel, and crude oil futures at one point declining more than 2%. However, both subsequently rebounded, and on October 7, Brent opened higher at $101.1. During the holiday, COMEX gold prices swung repeatedly around $4,100 per ounce. On the morning of October 6, the price briefly fell below $4,130 per ounce, and the RMB-denominated gold price also briefly dropped to around 890 yuan per gram. Both later rebounded, and as of 9 AM on October 7, spot gold was priced at 896 yuan per gram.

Brokerages assess post-holiday A-shares: a "good start" is expected, focus on technology and resources

With Hong Kong stocks rebounding and US stocks at new highs, how will A-shares trade after the holiday? Multiple brokerages hold an optimistic view.

Zheshang Securities stated directly that considering the overall calm in news during the holiday period, relatively stable performance in overseas markets, and the Nasdaq repeatedly setting new all-time highs, market conditions after the holiday are expected to improve compared to before the holiday as capital flows back. However, because the adjustment in the week before the holiday was quite rapid and the original technical pattern was damaged, the formation of a medium-term bottom will likely be delayed.

CSC Financial believes that A-shares underwent an overall correction in September, with overseas liquidity tightening combined with valuation digestion in sectors that had risen sharply earlier, leading to larger pullbacks in growth and resource directions, while low-position sectors such as real estate, pharmaceuticals, and banking were relatively favored. Looking ahead to October, overseas liquidity pressure has eased somewhat, and the market is entering a dense disclosure period for third-quarter earnings, further elevating the importance of fundamental verification.

Guosen Securities believes that a strong finishing rally for A-shares is worth anticipating. From the domestic perspective, policy intensification is driving broader fundamental recovery, and there is still room for insurance funds and household capital to enter the market. From the overseas perspective, the external disturbances that constrained A-shares in the third quarter stemmed from geopolitical conflicts and expectations of liquidity tightening, and the global liquidity environment may no longer deteriorate going forward.

Regarding specific sectors, CSC Financial stated that after the September adjustment, valuation pressure on some high-growth industries has been partially released. In terms of allocation, it recommends focusing on AI hardware with high earnings certainty, industrial metals, coal, oil and gas, and basic chemicals supported by supply constraints and profit improvement, as well as innovative drugs with improving industry trends and securities and insurance with low valuations and improving profitability.

Zheshang Securities noted in its research report that based on the judgment of "holiday effects influencing structure and post-holiday recovery with a delayed bottom," it recommends maintaining restraint in medium-term positions for now and waiting for the reconstruction of a medium-term bottom to take shape before adding positions. On the industry front, it still recommends selecting sectors and industries that fell heavily earlier, such as ChiNext and STAR Market stocks, Hang Seng Tech, non-bank financials, media, and computers, and appropriately balancing allocations to continue participating in subsequent market moves with a balanced structure.

Guosen Securities pointed out that AI technology remains the main industry theme, and computing power hardware is expected to usher in a second wave of an M-shaped pattern. At the same time, AI trends may spread toward the application end. Referring to the experience from 2012-2015 when mobile internet expanded from hardware to software content, consumer electronics, embodied intelligence, and other edge-device scenarios have significant growth potential. With long-term capital accelerating into the market and the central price level of resource products rising, attention should be paid to resource-based dividend plays such as non-ferrous metals, coal, and utilities. Additionally, real estate and domestic demand sectors are at low levels in terms of valuation and institutional allocation, and may be poised for catch-up gains under strengthened policy support.