On October 6, gold has shown an overall weak trend and continued to decline, with the core reason mainly stemming from the impact of U.S. monetary policy, while safe-haven benefits have barely played a role.

Although last week's U.S. non-farm payroll data came in worse than expected and the market is basically certain that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates in October, it has not completely ruled out the possibility of a rate hike in December at year-end. At the same time, U.S. services sector data shows that inflation is falling slowly and remains sticky, leading the market to widely believe that U.S. high interest rates will be maintained for a long time. High interest rates, a strong dollar, and persistently elevated Treasury yields continue to weigh on gold prices, and coupled with speculative funds continuously reducing their long positions in gold, even a slight safe-haven boost from Middle East geopolitical tensions is completely overwhelmed by the bearish pressure from interest rates, leaving gold prices broadly under pressure and trending downward.

Today the market has no major economic data releases, and price movements will mainly depend on remarks from Federal Reserve officials, whose statements will directly affect the dollar and Treasury trends, thereby driving gold volatility. From a technical analysis perspective, on the larger daily chart trend, gold has clearly entered a bearish downtrend. After falling from previous highs, gold prices have continued to print bearish candles, with the overall price center continuously shifting lower, always suppressed below the short-term moving averages, which have also formed an obvious cap. Currently, the main resistance above gold is concentrated in the 4160 to 4180 range, and prices rebounding to this zone are likely to encounter resistance and pull back. Although the short-term decline has been rapid and oversold conditions exist, the chart has not shown any signs of stabilization or bottoming, with neither a large bullish reversal candle nor a long lower shadow stabilization pattern, indicating that the downtrend has not completely ended. At this stage, the key support below is around 4100; holding this level would only lead to small-range consolidation and repair, making a significant rally difficult. Once this support is broken, a new round of decline will begin.

From the medium-term 4-hour swing perspective, gold's bearish structure is very standard, with highs continuously declining and each rebound growing weaker. Prices remain below the medium- to long-term moving averages, the moving averages are in complete bearish alignment, and the downtrend is solid. Currently, 4105 is the most important recent swing low and also the bulls' last line of defense. On technical indicators, MACD remains below the zero line; although downward momentum has weakened and the pace of decline has slowed, no bottom reversal signal has formed, and this is merely a brief pause in the decline rather than a successful bottoming. Short-term rebound resistance is concentrated in the 4200 to 4225 range; only if prices hold above 4225 can the continued decline pattern be broken. Before that, all rebounds are merely repair moves within a downtrend.

From the 1-hour short-term trading perspective, gold has a short-term need for a modest rebound and repair, making it suitable to capture short-term entry timing. On the hourly chart, rebound highs continue to decline, and the characteristic of weak rebounds is very obvious, with gold prices currently in low-level consolidation. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and prices are running along the lower band; after short-term oversold conditions, there is room for technical repair and a small rebound. The key short-term support below is in the 4115 to 4125 range, with the core defensive low at 4105; short-term resistance is temporarily in the 4152 to 4170 range above, and prices rebounding to this zone are likely to face selling pressure. Overall indicators have not shown a clear bullish divergence, and the short-term rebound is only technical repair, not a trend reversal.

So for short-term operations going forward, one can refer to the following: 1. If a short-term rebound occurs after another probe lower, then for now still consider first taking a light long position, and above all continue to watch the 4152-4170 area for resistance and exit first; 2. For the current rebound above, one can watch near 4152 for an aggressive short attempt, and if the market holds above 4152, consider a manual stop loss; for this short position, the first target remains the 4125-4115 area below, with the second target at 4105, and if 4105 is broken, one can continue to look lower. Once the market subsequently reclaims 4152, do not blindly chase longs; above, one can then watch the battle around 4170 and around 4190, and if these levels come under pressure again, one can consider taking another short position. Specific real-time strategies need to be adjusted on a live basis.