Crude oil held steady, with rising Middle East exports on one side and growing risks for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz on the other.
Copper prices swung back and forth on Tuesday in thin trading, supported by gains in global equities and a softer dollar. Spot gold advanced, reversing an earlier decline and erasing its morning losses. Falling oil prices and a rebound in the bond market eased concerns about inflation and the path of interest rates.
Crude Oil: Prices Steady as Middle East Shipments Rise but Hormuz Risks Mount
Crude oil held steady, with rising Middle East exports on one side and growing risks for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz on the other. Global benchmark Brent crude settled near $101 a barrel after falling as much as 3.3% during the session, while WTI was roughly flat around $89 a barrel.
At the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on Tuesday, several industry executives pointed to higher oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, though many also noted that the global supply buffer is narrowing. Kuwait is currently producing about 75% of its pre-Iran-war level, while Iraq is seeking to charter more vessels to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Saudi Arabia is now pumping 5.8 million barrels per day through the East-West pipeline. That came after Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers to a six-year low in a bid to defend market share.
Vitol Group Chief Executive Russell Hardy said at the conference that about 12 million barrels per day of crude has been shipped through the Strait of Hormuz over the past seven to 10 days. "A lot of national oil companies are trying to get that oil out," he said. "As we head into winter, to keep the market balanced we need 10 million, 12 million, even 14 million barrels going through that route, because there is no more inventory in the West to draw down."
Still, shipping risks remain. Iran has recently stepped up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has reported nine attacks in the Strait of Hormuz so far this month, equivalent to half the total number it reported across the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf during the whole of September. At the same time, India condemned a fresh round of attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea that injured Indian crew members.
In Yemen, the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government claimed it had retaken territory from the Houthis. Meanwhile, fighting has intensified near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, an important maritime route for Saudi exports. The Houthis said they fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia and targeted Riyadh's main airport in response to overnight strikes.
WTI November futures were roughly flat, settling at $89.44 a barrel. Brent December futures rose 0.3% to settle at $100.58 a barrel.
Copper Steady in Thin Trading
Copper prices swung back and forth on Tuesday in thin trading, supported by gains in global equities and a softer dollar. London Metal Exchange copper was roughly flat, settling at $14,415 a ton, after posting its biggest gain in more than two weeks on Monday. The dollar index fell 0.3%, while the S&P 500 rose to a record high on optimism over corporate earnings.
Trading in the copper market remained light. Attention also turned to supply risks in Chile, the world's largest copper producer. Codelco said on Tuesday it is investigating new evidence that copper output may have been overstated, which could mean production figures were exaggerated. Labor risks were also in focus. Two unions at Antofagasta Plc's Centinela copper mine are preparing for a possible strike. Mandatory mediation is now in its final day, with the two sides still negotiating. Meanwhile, BHP Group is also in salary mediation talks at the Escondida copper mine.
LME copper was roughly flat at $14,415 a ton; LME aluminum rose 0.2% to $3,133.50 a ton; LME zinc gained 0.6% to $3,766 a ton; LME nickel fell 0.2% to $15,682 a ton; LME tin slipped 0.2% to $54,184 a ton; LME lead declined 0.1% to $1,873 a ton.
Gold Rises as Inflation Concerns Ease
Spot gold advanced, reversing an earlier decline and erasing its morning losses. Falling oil prices and a rebound in the bond market eased concerns about inflation and the path of interest rates. "The gold price has stabilized for now," Commerzbank analyst Barbara Lambrecht said in an emailed report. "After all, concerns about a rapid U.S. rate hike have recently eased."
At 3:36 p.m. New York time, spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,169.04 an ounce. Spot silver rose 0.7% to $61.472 an ounce.