Bond traders are convinced that more Federal Reserve rate hikes are on the way, and even if job growth is expected to slow, that prospect is unlikely to change significantly.

According to a survey of economists, the employment report to be released by the U.S. Labor Department on Friday is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by about 90,000 in September, down from 162,000 the previous month. But that increase would still be roughly in line with the monthly average so far this year, pointing to a persistently strong labor market and giving the central bank room to keep tightening monetary policy, as the Fed focuses on pushing down inflation that has stayed above target for the past five years.

"You need a number close to zero, or even negative — and I think you really need a downside surprise in the wage data" to drive Treasuries higher, said Steve Boothe, head of investment-grade bonds and portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price Group. "The bar for the jobs market to become the catalyst for this rally is actually quite high."

The selloff in the U.S. bond market eased on Thursday as rising concerns about Europe's debt burden drove investors into Treasuries for safety, while two Fed officials — Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson — suggested policymakers should first take more time before deciding whether further rate hikes are needed. That pushed the two-year Treasury yield down about 10 basis points to below 4.8% and pulled the 10-year yield back from a 24-year high.

But analysts said the rebound had little to do with any change in the U.S. outlook or any easing of the pressures driving yields higher. Oil prices are hovering near $100 a barrel, with few signs of progress in ending the war in Iran. Massive deficit spending by the federal government and the artificial intelligence boom are fueling steady economic expansion. And inflation has already climbed above 3% this year.

Although futures traders have slightly reduced the scale of their rate-hike bets — and expect the next increase to come only at the December meeting — they still expect at least three more 25-basis-point hikes by July.

However, the scale of the recent selloff has made the bond market difficult to predict. When U.S. inflation data were released on Wednesday, the results were slightly softer than expected, and Treasuries briefly rallied before giving up those gains and pushing yields back toward multi-decade highs.

With positioning increasingly tilted toward higher rates, analysts said a sharp downside surprise in the employment data could extend Thursday's rally as investors unwind some positions.

"If we get a number that the market reads as an early sign of stress in the jobs market, I think we could see a disproportionate rally compared with a figure that meets expectations or is slightly stronger," said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

Still, there is little confidence that the selloff has peaked. Karen Manna, fixed-income strategist and portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said she has become less bearish since the Fed raised rates at its Sept. 16 meeting, but she is still not convinced yields have topped out.

"A fair amount of our thesis that rates would rise this high has already played out," Manna said. Still, she said yields "could continue to move higher."