According to Woofun AI, Ripple (XRP.US) hit a historic milestone in the third quarter (Q3): closing prices were positive in July, August, and September, marking the first time the asset has recorded three consecutive monthly gains and completely breaking the previous pattern of at least one negative month within a quarter.

This structural shift was driven by multiple factors. July rose 2%, August surged 30%, and September added another 7.95%, bringing cumulative quarterly gains to over 43%. Institutional demand triggered by the U.S. spot XRP ETF (XRP.US) served as the core engine, compounded by a short squeeze in September that collectively pushed prices higher.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that since April, exchange outflows have been significant, with holdings dropping from 12.9 billion tokens to 11 billion tokens. XRP is currently hovering around $1.50 with a market cap of approximately $95 billion, and the weekly chart has broken above the downtrend line formed since July 2025, signaling a strengthening technical picture.

However, seasonal risks should not be overlooked. October has historically been Ripple's worst-performing month, with an average return of -4.71%, and the month closed negative in both 2024 and 2025. By contrast, November and December have been strong, with average gains of 13.3%. Analysts note that if the weekly close can hold above $1.70, the probability of a Q4 rally increases substantially.

The hourly chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern forming, with $1.54 as the key breakout level. A breakout could trigger a 10% rebound, while a breakdown could see a pullback to the $1.30 to $1.40 support zone.

Future price action will depend on Ripple's Swell conference at the end of October, institutional investor activity, ETF fund inflows, and Federal Reserve policy decisions. These variables will determine volatility and the direction of the breakout from the sideways trading range. Whether XRP can overcome October's seasonal weakness will be the key litmus test for whether Ripple can sustain its quarterly upward momentum.