According to a report from Economic Information Daily, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently released its latest Economic Outlook report, revising its 2026 global economic growth forecast upward from the 2.8% estimated in June to 2.9%.

The report suggests that although the situation in the Middle East has dealt a blow to the global economy and global economic growth slowed in the first half of this year, many countries' economies have still demonstrated resilience. Relatively ample oil inventories, newly added energy supplies from outside the Gulf region, and support measures adopted by some countries have to some extent alleviated the impact of the Middle East situation on the global economy. At the same time, sustained activity in the field of artificial intelligence has driven growth in investment, production, and trade.

However, the report also points out that the global economic outlook still depends to a large extent on the development of the Middle East conflict. Recently, as oil production and exports in the Gulf region continue to be affected, energy prices have risen again. Driven by factors such as extreme weather affecting supplies, the prices of some agricultural products have also risen significantly in recent months. In addition, continuous adjustments to trade policies such as tariffs and export restrictions have intensified policy uncertainty and supply disruptions.

The report forecasts that due to rising commodity prices, short-term inflationary pressures will increase somewhat, but will gradually ease in 2027. The overall inflation rate for G20 economies is expected to fall from 4.1% in 2026 to 3.6% in 2027, while core inflation in developed economies is expected to decline from 2.7% to 2.5% over the same period.

Facing renewed energy price increases and inflation above target levels, the OECD recommends that central banks in various countries ensure that inflation expectations remain stable and adjust monetary policy in a timely manner based on changes in price pressures and economic growth prospects. Governments should also implement precise measures to mitigate the impact of rising energy prices and preserve incentives for reducing energy use and promoting energy supply diversification.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, the OECD calls for advancing structural reforms to further promote energy supply diversification, improve energy efficiency, and enhance the resilience of economies in coping with supply shocks.