Official data show that despite multiple successive shocks — the trade war launched by US President Donald Trump, persistently high inflation, high interest rates, and the Iran conflict that has pushed up gasoline prices and squeezed household budgets — the US job market is still showing resilience. The US Labor Department is about to release September payroll and unemployment figures, and the market expects the data may once again remain solid: economists forecast that businesses, government agencies, and nonprofits added a total of 90,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate holding at a low 4.1%.

An index released by the Conference Board shows that US consumer confidence fell this month to its lowest level in more than a decade. One reason: more than 28% of respondents told the business think tank they expect fewer jobs within six months, while only 14% expect more jobs — twice as many anticipated declines as gains. Data from job site Glassdoor show that an employee confidence index measuring workers' views on their own company's prospects fell last month to a record low since the gauge was created in early 2016, a period that includes the global pandemic. This was also the third time this year the index hit a record low. Glassdoor chief economist Daniel Zhao said: "Over the past year, employee confidence has continued to slide, with issues ranging from layoff risk to artificial intelligence steadily adding to workers' anxiety."

With just one month to go before the midterm elections, voters are about to decide whether Trump's Republican Party can keep control of Congress, and public dissatisfaction with the economy continues to build. A poll released Thursday showed that only 17% of US adults approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living; only 26% approve of his overall economic stewardship, a new low. Public doubts about the job market stem partly from a peculiar feature of the current labor market: companies are not carrying out mass layoffs, but hiring activity is equally sluggish. A Labor Department measure of gross hiring, before subtracting separations and unemployment, has been stagnant for more than two years. Economists call this a "low-hiring, low-firing" job market: most people already employed keep their jobs, but job seekers have difficulty finding positions. In August, the average duration of unemployment for jobless workers exceeded six months, the longest since February 2022. Glassdoor's Zhao said: "People know that losing a job now comes at an especially high cost. They hear from friends around them that finding work after being laid off is long and difficult, which makes the fear of layoffs far greater than usual."

In such a depressed environment, fewer employees are willing to quit voluntarily. "People often find themselves stuck," Zhao said. "Workers have a hard time finding better jobs in the open market — whether for higher pay or better work-life balance." Weak hiring has also brought softer wage growth. In August, average hourly earnings rose only 3.1% year over year, the lowest annual increase since May 2021. Researchers at the San Francisco Fed said in a report released in August that even though the economic expansion has lasted a long time, two groups that should have benefited are finding it harder to get hired. Normally at this stage of a recovery — six years after the last recession — companies are desperate for workers and willing to take on young, inexperienced, or less-skilled job seekers. But the reality is the opposite: "Job seekers are no longer being absorbed by the market, employment channels are steadily narrowing, and the benefits of the recovery are not reaching marginal workers," the researchers wrote.

In addition, groups that can usually return to work fastest — prime-age workers aged 25 to 54 and people with college degrees — are also struggling to get rehired. San Francisco Fed researchers have not fully determined the root cause of the worsening job-seeking environment. They speculate it may be related to Trump's tighter immigration policies, slower hiring by tech companies and government contractors, early displacement effects of AI on professional roles, uncertainty over policy direction, or early signs of broader labor market deterioration. One factor making the picture more complicated: the number of new jobs the US now needs to keep the unemployment rate stable is lower than in the past. The retirement of baby boomers combined with immigration restrictions has reduced the number of people competing for jobs. Economists say the break-even level of job growth needed to keep unemployment stable could be as low as 0 per month, compared with about 150,000 per month roughly a year ago. So far this year, employers have added an average of 80,000 jobs per month, enough to keep unemployment low, a marked improvement from the average of only 9,700 jobs per month in 2025, the weakest hiring level outside a recession since 2002. But hiring remains far below the monthly average of 166,000 in 2023 and 2024, and the 491,000 per month during the post-lockdown boom of 2021-2022. Zhao said: "We are seeing a slight improvement. But whether that improvement can truly lift workers' confidence in the job market is another matter. A modest rebound does not mean opportunities are fully opening up, nor does it make people feel they have a chance at career advancement."