Key takeaways: US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Thursday that US-India trade talks are still moving forward, but the two sides will not reach an agreement anytime soon.

Greer's remarks came a day after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a phone call with US President Donald Trump. Modi described the call as "productive," while Trump did not disclose details of the conversation.

On September 30, 2026, the G20 trade ministers' meeting was held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal (left) and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer visited Rockwell Automation.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer signaled on Thursday that the highly anticipated US-India trade agreement will be difficult to finalize in the near term. Washington and New Delhi are still ironing out the details of the deal.

In response to a question from Asian News International (ANI), Greer said: "I don't think the agreement will come right away." He added: "We have already fully mapped out all the sticking points."

Just a day before Greer made these remarks, US President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi had just finished a phone call. Greer described the call as "extremely constructive."

Greer also held bilateral talks with Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, who was visiting Milwaukee for the G20 trade ministers' meeting. Goyal posted on social media, expressing a more optimistic view on the prospects of the negotiations. He highlighted that his meeting with Greer focused on finalizing the next mutually beneficial interim agreement of the US-India bilateral trade pact as soon as possible.

Ronak D. Desai, a visiting fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, said in an interview: "Goyal is focused on what has already been resolved, while Greer is focused on what has not yet been resolved. In any trade negotiation, the issues left for last are often the hardest to crack."

Experts analyze that for the US side, India's continued purchases of Russian oil are a major friction point; while India's priority demands are protecting its politically important agricultural sector and securing tariff preferences that can give it a competitive advantage.

Red lines in the negotiations

On Wednesday, Modi said his call with Trump was "productive." The two leaders not only reviewed bilateral trade, defense, energy and key technology cooperation, but also discussed related follow-up work.

The Iran war has disrupted global energy markets, forcing India to further increase Russian oil imports; but the US government believes that India's purchase of Russian crude is equivalent to funding the war in Ukraine.

US-India relations have been under pressure over the past year. Now India faces a new risk: if it continues to buy Russian oil, Washington may impose tariffs of up to 100% on Indian goods. If the US implements such tariffs, it could directly disrupt trade negotiations.

India is hoping to use the negotiations to secure stronger export competitiveness for its products in the US market.

Last August, the US imposed a 25% punitive tariff on India over its imports of Russian oil, bringing the total tariff rate on Indian goods to 50%. In February 2026, the tariff was lowered to 18%; at the time, Trump claimed that India "has agreed to stop buying Russian oil and instead significantly increase oil purchases from the US and even Venezuela."

But India did not endorse Trump's publicly announced statement, and India has always emphasized that its purchase of Russian oil is entirely for the purpose of safeguarding its own energy security.

Since 2026, Russian oil has accounted for an increasing share of India's energy supply; affected by the global energy supply crunch caused by the Iran war, India cannot abandon Russian oil supplies.

Arpit Chaturvedi, a South Asia consultant at strategic advisory firm Teneo, told that: "Under the current circumstances, the trade complementarity between the two countries may have reached its limit." He said: "At present, it seems that neither side can satisfy the other's demands, nor can they 'agree to disagree' and set aside differences to sign an agreement directly."

Previously, the Office of the US Trade Representative completed an investigation into alleged forced labor-related policies of 60 economies, and some Indian goods exported to the US were subject to an additional 10% tariff.

According to a notice released by the Indian government, a considerable portion of India's exports to the US, such as generic drugs and smartphones, are not covered by the 10% tariff.