According to Zhitong Finance APP, US September nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations, cooling market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. Last Friday, US tech stocks rallied across the board and the Nasdaq hit an intraday record high, which in turn drove a recovery in Hong Kong tech stocks.

As of the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.28% to 24,040.34 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 0.62% to 4,183.68 points.

On the ETF side, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) rose 0.24% to HK$24.64, and CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033) gained 0.64% to HK$4.092.

In terms of sector performance, Tesla's third-quarter deliveries beat expectations and Nvidia's share price hit a fresh record high, pushing leveraged ETFs tied to US giants higher.

As of the close, CSOP 2x Long Tesla (07766) climbed 7.15% to HK$85.72, while CSOP 2x Long Nvidia (07788) rose 2.81% to HK$192.00.

On October 2 US Eastern Time, Tesla released its third-quarter production and delivery report, showing global deliveries of 486,500 vehicles for the quarter, up 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and above the market consensus of roughly 460,000. Recovering demand in Europe was the main driver. Analysts expect sales to grow further as the company gradually rolls out its FSD in Europe.

On the same day, Nvidia's share price hit a fresh intraday record high. The company had earlier increased its share buyback authorization by US$150 billion to US$235 billion, setting the largest buyback record in US corporate history. The move signaled management's strong confidence in the company's long-term value and is seen as an important anchor supporting the stock price.

Driven by US September nonfarm payrolls falling sharply short of expectations and cooling market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October, Hong Kong optical communication and semiconductor ETFs rose broadly.

As of the close, CSOP 2x Long Samsung Electronics (07747) gained 3.34% to HK$84.70; Value Partners Optical Communication Active ETF (02811) rose 2.38% to HK$15.08; and E Fund Asia Semiconductor ETF (03486) advanced 2.24% to HK$20.12.

US September nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of about 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October subsequently cooled. Last Friday, the three major US stock indices closed higher collectively, with the Nasdaq rising 1.19% and hitting an intraday record high. Driven by this, Hong Kong ETFs themed around technology, semiconductors and optical communications rose broadly.

CSC Financial previously noted in a research report that demand for inference-side and infrastructure computing power is expected to remain robust, and it continues to favor core AI computing segments such as chips, optical modules, switches and PCBs.

Elevated US Treasury yields weighed on gold, sending Hong Kong gold-related ETFs lower across the board.

As of the close, CSOP 2x Long Gold (07299) fell 1.38% to HK$21.44.

Although the weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls provided support for gold prices, the US-Iran situation dominated the market, while a stronger dollar and elevated US Treasury yields pressured gold. Recently, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly climbed to 5.34%, touching a 24-year high.

Guosen Securities believes that although the current weakening employment data reduces the need for further tightening, it is not enough to prompt a rapid pivot. It will still be necessary to observe whether the cooling in employment persists and whether the disinflation path is confirmed.

Institutional Views

A relevant person in charge at Everbright Securities Asset Management said the market's entrenched impression of AI remains stuck at the stage of "story-driven valuations," but in fact, over the past two to three years, profits in many hardware segments have been doubling again and again. Based on order books and the capex progress of downstream customers, growth rates next year and the year after are still expected to be substantial.

Liu Gang of CICC believes that during the absence of southbound flows, short-term volatility in Hong Kong stocks may be amplified. Cooling rate-hike concerns could bring repair opportunities, but opening up further upside requires more catalysts. On allocation, technology should wait for industry trends; cyclicals depend on Fed policy; and although domestic demand valuations are low, fundamentals remain weak, so it is important to watch whether household credit continues to improve and whether policy provides more targeted support.