With less than a month until Election Day, Trump is promoting two already-launched federal cash payment programs while once again floating a much larger $5,000 check promise — but only if Republicans keep control of Congress.

Last Friday, Trump announced one-time $90 payments to 20.8 million Medicare beneficiaries. A day later, he revived an earlier pledge: $5,000 to every American adult citizen — but only if Republicans retain congressional control in November.

"If Republicans win the House and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections, I will give $5,000 to all adult citizens of the United States of America," Trump said on Saturday. He made a similar promise last month at the Republican National Committee's first midterm convention in Dallas.

Trump provided no details on who would authorize these payments or where the money would come from. These claims follow the $500 Obamacare "refund" checks that began going out last week to roughly 950,000 people who purchase unsubsidized insurance through the federal marketplace.

The $90 payments to certain eligible Medicare Part B enrollees are set to arrive this month, funded by the Medicare Improvement Fund. The $500 Obamacare payments are already being sent to certain full-price HealthCare.gov customers.

An analysis found that 71% of the Obamacare funds — $339 million — will flow to residents of 13 states that have some of the nation's most competitive Senate and gubernatorial races, though eligibility is based on insurance status, not voting identity.

This wave of direct cash payment proposals comes as Republicans enter the final stretch of the midterm campaign, which has been dominated primarily by concerns over prices and the economy.

But the $5,000 "Trump dividend" remains just a promise, and Trump has been extremely vague on details, especially where the money would come from and who would need to authorize it. Sending $5,000 to every adult citizen would cost approximately $1.2 trillion and would require congressional approval.

Some Republicans have also raised concerns about its impact on the deficit and inflation. Arizona Republican Representative David Schweikert said last month he would "move heaven and earth" to block the proposal, warning it could drive up interest rates. Maryland Democratic Representative Jamie Raskin called the plan "political bribery" in a September 10 interview and said Congress controls federal spending.

The White House and the offices of Arizona Republican Representative David Schweikert and Maryland Democratic Representative Jamie Raskin did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Polling shows the idea is not a surefire political winner. A Rasmussen Reports survey found likely voters were essentially split on the proposal, 47% to 48%. Only 15% said it would affect their vote.

A Marquette University Law School poll in Wisconsin found 70% opposed the payments, while one survey found 57% of registered voters doubted Trump would actually send the payments even if Republicans kept Congress.

In the past, Trump has repeatedly promised cash payments to Americans — but failed to deliver. In February 2025, the Trump administration floated a $5,000 "DOGE dividend" check, claiming the money would come from savings from cuts made by the now-defunct, Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency. Those payments never materialized.

Then in November, Trump proposed dividend payments funded by reciprocal tariffs of at least $2,000 per person. The Supreme Court struck down those tariffs this February, and ultimately no checks were sent.

The pattern of offering direct cash payments to voters dates back to Trump's first term. Six weeks before the 2020 election, Trump promised $200 prescription drug cards to 33 million Medicare beneficiaries "within weeks" — but those cards were never sent.

Still, the Trump administration did send $1,776 "warrior dividends" to roughly 1.5 million service members last year, and Congress approved pandemic stimulus payments during his first term.