Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
2 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1643 ET - Natural gas futures settled up 2.3% to $3.0350 per million British thermal units, bouncing off of contract lows it previously found in early-August. With a 'Super El Niño' in action, a mild winter is expected - potentially meaning lackluster natural gas demand this winter. "The question remains how far futures may decline with unknown winter weather risks," says EBW Analytics in a note. The firm forecasts a storage buildup in natural gas within the next 3 weeks, and says that "the long-term outlook is bearish." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1642 ET - Crude oil trimmed early losses late in the session as investors sought safety ahead of the weekend. WTI crude oil fell 1.9% to $91.11 a barrel, while Brent edged down 0.06% to $102.25 a barrel. Analysts are speculating regarding the implementation of the G-7 deal releasing 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel. "'Talk is cheap' comes to mind," says Scott Shelton of United ICAP in a note. "I am not sure the EU/IEA feels the political pressure to release stocks now and I could see them telling each other that maybe they should be waiting for a 'real shortage' of Gasoil before releasing stocks." U.S. diesel futures remained lower on the day, closing down 3.04% $4.0511 a gallon. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1343 ET [Dow Jones]--Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the labor market has been steady, and the inflation side of the central bank's dual mandate is still where the problem is. In an interview with Fox Business, Goolsbee said there is "plenty of room for anything to be on the table" when asked about the need for future rate hikes. After reviewing the PCE August inflation report, Goolsbee said it wasn't great, but noted some earlier readings were revised to be a little bit more modest. When the Fed's September Summary of Economic Projections were released, Goolsbee said he seems to be one of the more optimistic people on the committee. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com )

1229 ET - CBOT corn futures are down 1.4% midday, leading row crop futures lower as fund traders are seen closing long positions that they hold in corn. Last Friday's Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed a net long position among managed money traders that's almost 415,000 contracts. This week's update may show sizable selling among these traders. "[Corn is] down on more long liquidation, a touch of harvest pressure, and forecasts for perfect harvest weather starting next week to last for two weeks," says Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. Soybeans slide 0.6%, and wheat is down 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1200 ET - Domestic refineries are increasingly important for the U.K. in the context of rising turbulence around the world, says Elizabeth de Jong, head of business association Fuels Industry U.K., whose members include majors like BP, Shell and ExxonMobil. The G-7 group of major economies is to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel from their emergency stocks within four months and not restrict oil exports, France's Emmanuel Macron said Friday, in a bid to bring down soaring diesel prices and ward off a U.S. export ban. "With global uncertainty increasing, now is the time for the U.K. government to show it is taking energy security seriously," De Jong says, noting that the country imports more than half the diesel it consumes. She calls on Westminster to enact measures to "level the playing field" for British refineries. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

1055 ET - European gasoil futures, a benchmark for diesel prices in the region, drop more than 7% in afternoon trading after G-7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from their emergency stocks. "We will implement our commitments with a coordinated release through the IEA of 100 million barrels to begin immediately over four months, including a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days by G-7 members and partners," they said in a statement. In afternoon trading, gasoil futures are down 7.3% to $1,342.25 a metric ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1003 ET - Natural gas is down 0.3%, retreating under the $3 per-mmBtu mark after the EIA reported that in July, U.S. natural gas production reached a record high. The agency says that July production landed at 137 billion cubic feet a day, continuing the gradual and stable run-up in natural gas production seen since 2010. This new record replaces the record set after 5 months of new record-highs in 2025, says the EIA. Mild weather has been a factor pressing on natural gas futures today, with electrical power demand seen as limited. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0947 ET - Crude oil futures are sliding as more barrels of oil move through the Strait of Hormuz, although the risk of new military incursions remains strong. "The underlying picture remains fragmented," says Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank in a note. On the one hand, Saudi Arabian crude oil exports picked up in late September, but on the other is the present threat of further U.S. strikes on Middle Eastern infrastructure. "The U.S. decision to send another carrier group towards the region underlines why improving flows have yet to remove the market's risk premium," says Hansen. WTI crude is down 4% to $89.22 a barrel, while Brent crude falls 2.7% to $99.56 a barrel. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0846 ET - Centrica could deliver a 15% EPS compound annual growth rate through to 2030 and return 25% of its current market capitalization in dividends over the period, JP Morgan analysts write. "We believe the market has over-reacted to the earnings downgrades, which we see as mostly driven by non-recurrent factors," they say, noting that the stock is 30% below April highs. They add that the British Gas owner has historically outperformed peers in bad debt collections, which should mean that these charges are recovered by price-cap allowances. JP Morgan has an overweight rating on the stock and 227 pence target price. Shares are up 1% at 148.75 pence, but 12% lower over the year to date. (ian.walker@wsj.com)

0825 ET - While the jump in eurozone inflation is still mainly driven by energy prices, broader inflationary pressures mount with energy prices set to stay elevated, ING's Bert Colijn says in a note. Inflation was 3.8% in September, the highest since 2023. Despite oil prices remaining somewhat below peaks in 2022 and this spring, Euro 95 petrol prices have reached an all-time high, weighing significantly on the inflation basket, he says. Now with food inflation ticking higher to 1.4% from 1.1% in August, and core inflation rising to 2.5% from 2.4%, there seems to signs of increased pass-through to other inflation categories, albeit this is very preliminary, Colijn says. The ECB still has work to do, he adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0805 ET - Vestas's announced orders for the third quarter are below expectations, but the order outlook in key regions including Germany and the U.S. remains positive, Citi analysts Martin Wilkie and Avinash Mundhra write. Higher costs on the He Dreiht wind farm project probably means that margins at the power solutions unit don't repeat the high seen in the second quarter, Citi says. However, it expects onshore margins to stay high and for annual guidance to be retained. The bank doesn't expect an incremental buyback to be announced with the third-quarter results. "With the order momentum into 2027 likely remaining positive, and margins set to improve further into next year, we retain our buy rating." Citi has a 260 Danish kroner target price on the stock. Shares rise 3.3% to 196 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0619 ET - Oil prices extend losses, with front-month Brent crude futures falling back below $100 a barrel after media reports of talks on potential diesel stock releases. In afternoon European trading, the global oil benchmark is down 2.6% to $99.62 a barrel, while WTI drops 3.9% to $89.28 a barrel. European gasoil futures--a benchmark for diesel prices in the region--fall 5% to $1,377.50 a metric ton. The prospect of a U.S. diesel export ban is hanging over the market, with investors watching closely for any EU response. While a ban could replenish U.S. diesel stocks and lower domestic prices in the short term, it could also reduce incentives to process crude, tightening U.S. gasoline supply and pushing pump prices higher, analysts say.

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