The U.S. job market has been stuck in what economists call a low-hire, low fire mode for the past two years — and the September employment report is likely to be in line with this unusual trend.

Here’s what to watch for in the pivotal jobs report, due Friday morning.

Slower hiring

The number of new U.S. jobs created in September is forecast to slow to 84,000 from a surprisingly strong gain of 162,000 in August.

Many economists suspect the hiring boost in August was exaggerated by school starting back up. Sometimes the government’s adjustments for seasonal swings in employment can produce questionable results that don’t prove to be sustainable.

“August was definitely an odd month,” said Kory Kantenga, head of economics for the Americas at LinkedIn. “I don’t think we will see a blockbuster jobs report on Friday.”

The economy has added an average of 69,000 new jobs a month since 2024, well below the nearly 200,000 average in the decade before the pandemic.

Businesses don’t see a compelling need to hire, especially when they are coping with the residue of high tariffs, high gas prices and high inflation.

Still, another above-forecast increase in new jobs in September — say, over 100,000 — would be taken as a good sign by Wall Street that the labor market is gradually improving.

One wild card? Labor Day. Businesses often put off hiring until after the holiday.

Low unemployment

The jobless rate is expected to stay at an extremely low 4.1% in September. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits is just a hair above a record low, as is the rate of layoffs.

Buoyed by record profits and steady sales, most businesses see little need to reduce costs by cutting jobs. The economy also appears to have sped up, further reducing the need to resort to layoffs.

Worker pay lags

If the labor market were on fire, one of the first signs would be rising wages. Right now there’s no sign of that.

Average hourly pay rose at a 3.1% rate in the 12 months that ended in August. That’s the smallest increase since 2019 if the pandemic era is omitted.

Wage growth has slowed steadily since 2022. Most workers might be secure in their job, but they are too worried to ask for a raise or to leave their current job without having another position lined up.

Who’s hiring?

Perhaps the best sign of improvement in the job market would be if hiring broadened out to more businesses beyond healthcare.

In 2025, healthcare companies and social-service providers — daycare, eldercare and so forth — accounted for more than 95% of all new jobs created. Virtually every other major industry lost jobs.

That appears to be changing. The large healthcare category only accounted for one-third of all new jobs created in the summer months of June, July and August.

“We’ve seen hiring slow down in healthcare this year,” Kantenga said.

During the summer, most other major industries added jobs. Those included hotels, restaurants, construction companies, manufacturers and wholesale businesses.

Even the number of professional jobs increased, after having declined consistently from 2023 to 2025.

The only way the era of low hiring is going to end is if most or all other industries join the party, so to speak.

Fed reaction

The Federal Reserve is trying to contain the most recent flareup in inflation — one of its two main jobs under the law. The other is to make sure the labor market is in good shape before raising interest rates.

Fed officials believe the labor market is stable and not something to worry about. That means the September jobs report is unlikely to factor into its rate decisions.

A strong jobs report could make the Fed a bit more comfortable raising rates if necessary. A weak report would probably be discounted in light of other signs of improvement in the labor market.