Brazil election could change crypto rules after Oct. 4

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Brazil has entered its Oct. 4 presidential vote with Lula at 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes in the final Datafolha poll, while the country’s crypto sector operates under new licensing,...

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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrazil election could change crypto rules after Oct. 4\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-10-04 20:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://crypto.news/brazil-election-could-change-crypto-rules-after-oct-4/><strong>cryptonews</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Brazil has entered its Oct. 4 presidential vote with Lula at 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes in the final Datafolha poll, while the country’s crypto sector operates under new licensing,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://crypto.news/brazil-election-could-change-crypto-rules-after-oct-4/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SOLX","symbol_name":"T-REX 2X Long SOL Daily Target ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://crypto.news/brazil-election-could-change-crypto-rules-after-oct-4/","article_id":"2672778500","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"crypto_news_highlight","url":"https://crypto.news/brazil-election-could-change-crypto-rules-after-oct-4/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2672778500","pubTimestamp":1791115266,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"crypto_news_highlight","name":"Crypto News"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Brazil has entered its Oct. 4 presidential vote with Lula at 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes in the final Datafolha poll, while the country’s crypto sector operates under new licensing, reporting and stablecoin-related rules.Brazil holds its first-round presidential election October 4, with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro leading polls.Datafolha puts Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes before voting begins.Brazil ranks first globally in Chainalysis’ 2026 crypto adoption index, with $252.5 billion activity estimated.Brazilian Central Bank rules require crypto providers to seek authorization and report large self-custody transfers.Flávio Bolsonaro’s official TSE policy index lists no specific cryptocurrency, stablecoin, or virtual-asset proposal yet.Datafolha’s final pre-election survey, published Oct. 3, put President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 45% of valid votes and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on 42%, a close race within overlapping margins of error. The survey inte","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"crypto.news","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SOLX":"T-REX 2X Long SOL Daily Target ETF","BSOL":"Bitwise Solana Staking ETF","NCIQ":"HASHDEX NASDAQ CRYPTO INDEX US ETF","DIME":"CoinShares Altcoins ETF","SLON":"ProShares Ultra Solana ETF","LFGY":"YieldMax Crypto Industry and Tech Portfolio Option Income ETF","EWZS":"MSCI巴西小盘股ETF-iShares","GDLC":"Grayscale CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF","BITQ":"Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF","SSK":"Rex-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF","SOLT":"2x Solana ETF","SOLZ":"Solana ETF","STCE":"Schwab Crypto Thematic ETF","BKCH":"AdvisorShares Sabretooth ETF","BITW":"Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF","GSOL":"Grayscale Solana Trust ETF","TEKX":"SPDR Galaxy Transformative Tech Accelerators ETF","CRPT":"First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry and Digital Economy ETF","DAPP":"VanEck Digital Transformation ETF"},"translate_title":"巴西大选可能会在 10 月 4 日之后改变加密货币规则","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BITW":1.5,"EWZS":1.5,"STCE":1.5,"NCIQ":1.5,"LFGY":1.5,"SLON":0.7,"GDLC":1.5,"DAPP":1.5,"SOLZ":0.6,"TEKX":1.5,"BKCH":1.5,"CRPT":1.5,"BSOL":0.7,"SOLX":0.7,"BITQ":1.5,"GSOL":0.7,"SSK":0.7,"SOLT":0.6,"DIME":1.5},"content_text":"Brazil has entered its Oct. 4 presidential vote with Lula at 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes in the final Datafolha poll, while the country’s crypto sector operates under new licensing, reporting and stablecoin-related rules.\n\n\nSummary\n\n\n\nBrazil holds its first-round presidential election October 4, with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro leading polls.\nDatafolha puts Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes before voting begins.\nBrazil ranks first globally in Chainalysis’ 2026 crypto adoption index, with $252.5 billion activity estimated.\nBrazilian Central Bank rules require crypto providers to seek authorization and report large self-custody transfers.\nFlávio Bolsonaro’s official TSE policy index lists no specific cryptocurrency, stablecoin, or virtual-asset proposal yet.\n\n\n\nDatafolha’s final pre-election survey, published Oct. 3, put President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 45% of valid votes and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on 42%, a close race within overlapping margins of error. The survey interviewed 4,006 voters in 122 municipalities.\nBrazil’s Superior Electoral Court, or TSE, has scheduled first-round voting from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time on Oct. 4. If no presidential candidate receives more than half of valid votes, a second round will take place on Oct. 25. More than 158 million Brazilians are eligible to vote.\nBrazil election is likely to require a second round\nSeveral final polls have placed Lula ahead in the first round without giving him enough support to avoid another vote. CNT/MDA put Lula at 47.8% of valid votes and Bolsonaro at 42.1%, while Reuters reported that Datafolha, Quaest, CNT/MDA and AtlasIntel surveys all pointed toward a likely runoff.\nThe latest Datafolha runoff test was even tighter, with Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 46%. Both figures fell within the survey’s margin of error, leaving the potential Oct. 25 contest statistically tied.\nPrediction markets have presented a different picture from opinion polling. UOL reported on Oct. 1 that Polymarket contracts implied roughly a 62% chance of an eventual Bolsonaro victory, compared with approximately 37% for Lula. Kalshi showed a similar split. The figures represent prices in prediction markets and are not surveys of Brazilian voters.\nCrypto policy has not been one of the defining issues of the presidential campaign, but the next administration will inherit a regulatory system that changed considerably during Lula’s current term.\nLula’s government has tightened Brazil’s crypto rules\nUnder the current administration, the Central Bank has moved virtual-asset companies inside its formal regulatory perimeter. Resolution BCB 520 established operating requirements for virtual-asset service providers, covering areas including governance, customer protection, internal controls and anti-money laundering procedures. The rules took effect on Feb. 2.\nCompanies providing covered crypto services must go through the Central Bank authorization process established under Resolution 519. A separate foreign-exchange rule brought several crypto activities under Brazil’s FX framework, including international transfers using virtual assets and transactions involving assets referenced to fiat currencies.\nRegulators tightened the system again just days before the election. Resolution 588, published Sept. 23 and effective Oct. 1, requires covered financial institutions to make specific reports to Coaf when virtual assets worth at least $10,000 move to or from self-custody wallets. The measure creates a reporting obligation; it does not prohibit self-custody or impose a $10,000 transaction ceiling.\nAs crypto.news reported on the new self-custody rule, the requirement sits within Brazil’s existing anti-money laundering framework and is separate from taxation.\nResolution 589 changed another deadline. Starting Nov. 6, institutions regulated by the Central Bank generally cannot facilitate virtual-asset market operations with service providers that are not authorized to operate in Brazil, subject to the exceptions contained in the rule.\nThe compliance burden is already changing the local industry. In related coverage, crypto.news reported that Lemon is leaving Brazil after concluding that the licensing capital requirements were too costly for its local operation. The company plans to close remaining Brazilian accounts on Oct. 16.\nFlávio Bolsonaro has not filed a clear crypto plan\nA Bolsonaro victory would introduce more uncertainty about the direction of crypto regulation because his official presidential program does not set out a dedicated cryptocurrency policy.\nThe TSE’s searchable version of Flávio Bolsonaro’s government program covers tax cuts, fiscal reform, privatization, banking, the digital economy and a proposed regulatory rollback. The index contains no specific entry for cryptocurrency, stablecoins or virtual assets.\nHis economic program calls for lower taxes in some areas and a review of regulations, including what it describes as a “revogaço regulatório,” or regulatory repeal effort. Applying those proposals specifically to the Central Bank’s crypto framework would be speculative because the filed program does not say that the virtual-asset regulations would be repealed or amended.\nThe absence of a crypto-specific proposal creates a different starting point from Lula’s position. A Lula victory would leave an administration that introduced the current rules in office, though it would not guarantee that existing policy remains unchanged. Bolsonaro has not publicly committed through his TSE-filed program to reversing, expanding or replacing the crypto framework.\nStablecoin taxes remain unfinished after election-year pause\nTax policy is one area where the election could affect what happens next. Reuters reported in March that Finance Minister Dario Durigan planned to delay a public consultation on crypto taxation as the government avoided politically difficult tax proposals before the presidential vote.\nThe consultation was expected to consider the tax treatment of crypto flows, including transactions involving stablecoins. No final tax created by that consultation was enacted before the postponement. As crypto.news previously reported, the proposal was shelved during the election period, leaving its future treatment unresolved.\nReporting requirements have continued independently of that tax debate. Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service introduced DeCripto under Normative Instruction 2,291, with transactions carried out from July 2026 falling under the new reporting system. The framework aligns Brazil’s disclosures with the OECD Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework.\nStablecoins account for a large part of the activity being reported. The Federal Revenue Service said in July that stablecoins represented roughly 80% of declared crypto transaction volume, having grown from only 3.5% in 2019.\nBrazil’s Central Bank has separately tightened supervision of stablecoin-linked transfers and crypto activity connected with foreign exchange. Its rules require providers to identify owners of self-custody wallets in covered FX transactions and maintain processes for checking the origin and destination of virtual assets.\nBrazil now ranks first for global crypto adoption\nThe election is taking place in what Chainalysis now ranks as the world’s leading country for grassroots cryptocurrency adoption.\nChainalysis’ 2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index put Brazil first overall, ahead of the U.S., Nigeria and Japan. The analytics firm estimated Brazil’s crypto economy at $252.5 billion and ranked the country among the top four across service flows, peer-to-peer activity, cross-border flows and on-chain balances.\nBrazil did not rank first in any one category. Chainalysis placed it second in cross-border flows, third in service flows, third in its domestic peer-to-peer economy and fourth in on-chain balances. Its combined performance produced the top overall ranking under the company’s revised 2026 methodology.\nThe figures are Chainalysis estimates based partly on on-chain information and service web-traffic data. They should not be read as an official government measurement of all cryptocurrency transactions inside Brazil.\nThe scale of the market helps explain why compliance deadlines have immediate consequences for exchanges and users. As crypto.news reported in September, industry estimates suggested that only a small portion of crypto companies then operating in Brazil were expected to pursue Central Bank authorization.\nWhat happens after the Oct. 4 Brazil election\nThe first immediate step is electoral. The TSE will begin issuing ballot-box results after voting ends at 5 p.m. Brasília time. If neither Lula nor Bolsonaro, nor another candidate, passes 50% of valid votes, the two highest finishers will contest the presidency on Oct. 25.\nExisting cryptocurrency rules remain in force during the election process. A change of president does not itself cancel Central Bank resolutions, Receita Federal reporting requirements or rules already scheduled to take effect.\nThe regulatory calendar continues soon after any potential runoff. From Nov. 6, Central Bank-regulated financial and payment institutions face restrictions on dealing with virtual-asset firms that lack authorization to operate in Brazil under Resolution 589.\nFrom Jan. 1, 2027, separate Central Bank requirements will expand supervisory data covering customer balances, custody positions, proof of reserves and assets committed to staking. Another anti-fraud measure scheduled for the same date requires a 24-hour precautionary retention period for certain virtual-asset transfers above $10,000 to overseas entities or self-custody wallets while providers conduct additional risk checks.\n\n\n\n\n\n                Read more:\n            \nSolana price prediction 2026: Will Alpenglow spark a bullish SOL breakout in October?","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}