Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
7 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0302 GMT - Palm oil falls in Asian trading, tracking overnight declines in soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade. Technical analysis suggests the outlook for crude palm oil futures remains bearish, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. However, global vegetable oil prices could rise in the coming months due to tighter supply as disruptions to Black Sea sunflower oil shipments coincide with declining South American soyoil exports, it adds. AmInvestment Bank sees resistance at 4,611 ringgit a ton and support at 4,512 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery is down 36 ringgit at 4,518 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0157 GMT - Copper prices are flat in early Asian trade. Although tight supply and resilient demand continue to support prices, a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields are limiting the upside. Copper concentrate supply remains tight, putting pressure on smelters' margins, and tighter domestic scrap availability has helped keep refined-copper inventories low, Minmetals Futures analysts say in a note. The U.S.-London copper spread also remains elevated on expectations of potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper, they add. The three-month LME copper contract is flat at $14,243.00 a ton.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0054 GMT - Gold falls in early Asian trade. The dollar and Treasury yields are currently the main obstacles to gold returning to its broader bullish path, says Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com. Moderating inflation creates an opportunity for gold, but economic resilience and elevated yields are preventing a decisive breakout, Massabni adds. "The real turning point will not come from a single day of price action, but from markets sustainably repricing the path of U.S. monetary policy," Massabni says. Spot gold is 0.4% lower at $4,160.68 a troy ounce, taking weekly losses to nearly 3%. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

2307 GMT [Dow Jones]--Macquarie thinks the earnings goals underpinning Ampol's A$225 million acquisition of Evie Networks are achievable. Evie operates more than 1,030 charging bays for electric vehicles in Australia. Ampol is targeting annualized Ebitda of A$30 million from combining Evie with its existing AmpCharge business within three years of the deal completing. Macquarie suggests a shift from less than 10% utilization of each charging bay to around 15%, coupled with A$10 million in cost savings, would ensure this goal is met. "Given the strong fleet growth currently under way, we expect this should be achievable in an Australian context (taking into account home charging, high solar penetration, etc)," Macquarie says. It has an outperform call and A$50.00/share price target on Ampol, which ended Thursday at A$43.51. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2231 GMT [Dow Jones]--Ampol's A$225 million acquisition of Evie Networks, which operates more than 1,030 charging bays for electric vehicles in Australia, looks strategically sound to Jefferies. It provides leadership in a rapidly growing EV charging market, accelerates Ampol's energy transition strategy, and improves economics of the company's existing AmpCharge business, analyst Michael Simotas says. "Price not materially higher than build cost, with less risk and hard work on grid access done," he says. "Management has strong capital allocation track record and current conditions are supporting very strong earnings and cashflow, but valuation is fair." Jefferies retains a hold call on Ampol, which ended Thursday at A$43.51. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1942 GMT - Live cattle futures on the CME close up 0.3% to $2.2335 a pound, as the push/pull between producers and packers continues. "The positive basis keeps futures tethered, but more like with a rubber band than a string," says Chris Swift of Swift Trading Co. "I anticipate more stagnation of price than direction as consumers are continually having to adjust to the rampant inflation making the relationship between cattle and beef complicated." Lean hog futures settle 0.8% lower at 68.85 cents a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1751 GMT - Regions where corn and soybeans are being planted in Brazil are either receiving ample rainfall or facing drought, according to analysts. The Super El Niño that's growing in strength appears to be exaggerating the weather being received in these crop-growing areas - affecting not only row crops, but soft commodities like coffee as well. "One area needs relief from the heat," says Jim Roemer with WeatherWealth in a note. "Another could use a break from the watering can - for the developing 2027 crop, the timing matters enormously." Soybeans and first-crop corn are being planted in Brazil currently. Planting for coffee also begins this month. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1749 GMT - China is rumored to be sitting on large inventories of soybeans, with crushing margins unprofitable for refiners there. This is the rationale used to explain why China hasn't purchased much in the way of U.S. soybeans since the Trump-Xi summit in Washington last week. "Soybeans are seeing additional pressure from reports China crushers are sitting on large stocks and Chinese crush margins are dropping," says Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting. China was the main customer for export buying seen in the USDA's weekly export sales report, but traders appear to want evidence of more. CBOT soybean futures are down 1.2% to $12.93 a bushel. Corn falls 0.8%, and wheat is virtually flat for the day. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1701 GMT - As Canadian Prime Minister Carney lauded the benefits of a proposed new oil pipeline to the country's west coast, opposition parties offered critical assessments. Carney designated the pipeline a project of national interest, which he forecast would create 140,000 jobs and generate over C$20 billion in GDP a year. New Democratic Party leader Avi Lewis, however, says the government was throwing billions in public money beyond a pipeline at a time of climate breakdown, "while sweeping aside environmental protections." Conservative lawmaker Michelle Rempel Garner says the pipeline represents another promise from Ottawa without a clear plan, adding her party will push for details on construction, the timeline, costs, and how and when Carney will ensure completion. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)

1603 GMT - Managed money traders are seen trimming the size of the net long positions they hold in grain futures to open trading in October, says Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. "The biggest issue the grains are facing today is margin call type selling from traders, including the funds as increased margin requirements are forcing them to pare down positions," says Hoops. Fund traders accumulated large net long positions in grains in recent months, according to CFTC data. Also pressing on grain futures is a stronger U.S. dollar, this as bond yields continue to climb. "The dollar is bearish as it slows down our exports," says Hoops. Most-active CBOT corn falls 0.6%, soybeans are down 1.4%, and wheat inches down 0.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1549 GMT - The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine isn't expected to be resolved until some point after 2027, says SovEcon in a note this week. As a result, the firm has reduced its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 4.7 million metric tons to 36.7 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year. That's 20% below last year, says the firm - and the lowest since 2021/22, says SovEcon. "The forecast was lowered as we no longer expect Black Sea and Azov Sea exports to normalize before 2027," says the firm. CBOT wheat futures are up 0.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1544 GMT - The EIA says that 64 billion cubic feet of natural gas were added to U.S. reserves for the week ended Sept. 25. This brings net storage to 3.42 trillion cubic feet, which is nearly 4% lower than this time last year, according to the EIA. The result is spot-on with the average estimate from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week. Prior to the report, analyst say they were looking for a surprise in the report to cause a big move in natural gas futures in either direction. Instead, natural gas has gradually floated lower, with the most-active contract down 1% to $2.996 per mmBtu.

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