Healing the world can lead to healthy gains too.
Shares of Gilead Sciences are up some 35% since Barron's highlighted them a year ago, citing the company's strong and growing portfolio of HIV and oncology medications that were contributing to a more stable source of revenue, helping bring the stock's lost decade to an end.
Those catalysts helped push Gilead higher, but they aren't all played out.
Gilead's returns over the past year outpaced the S&P 500's 14% gain but trail the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF, which has rallied 53%. (Barron's Investor Circle is also bullish on the XBI ETF). There are reasons to believe Gilead can narrow the gap with its ETF benchmark in coming quarters.
Gilead swung to a loss on acquisition-related costs in its most recent quarterly report in August, but its blockbuster drugs kept delivering. Its HIV treatment Biktarvy saw sales soar to $3.8 billion. Revenue from its prophylactic medicines crossed the $1 billion mark for the first time, driven by Yeztugo. The company also raised full-year sales guidance to between $30.1 billion and $30.4 billion, a figure that may prove conservative.
HIV should remain a pillar of strength for Gilead, which fully owns a streamlined two-drug regiment for the disease. It could soon see approval for its first-in-class and once-weekly treatment developed with Merck.
Biotech in general is booming, and the company has a good track record of smart dealmaking: Past deals laid the groundwork for it to move past its successful Hepatitis treatment that led shares to spike in 2015, and its likewise continuing to diversify its pipeline through M&A. More than three-quarters of the analysts tracked by FactSet are bullish on the shares.
Yet at around 15 times next year's expected earnings, the stock doesn't look too pricey, especially as consensus calls for earnings per share to climb back to $10.66 in 2028, the first time it's broached double-digits in more than a decade. Its multiple wouldn't even have to reach 17 times 2028 expected earnings for the shares to be $175.
Gilead has seen its debt climb due to its acquisitions, and there are concerns about drug pricing and regulation in the U.S. Nonetheless, the company has proven adept at developing multiple blockbuster franchises over time.
Don't expect that to change any time soon.
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