The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1355 ET - Treasury yields keep traveling higher, a symptom of the selling seen in bonds. This dynamic has many investors curbing the riskier investments that they make, which includes cryptocurrencies. That's why bitcoin can't manage to break out of where it's currently rangebound at, says analysts for Bitfinex in a note. America's mounting national debt is also a factor that is spooking traders, says the firm. The firm pegs its support target at $84,000, while resistance is expected to be within $87,000 and $90,000. Bitcoin falls 0.6% to $85,307, ethereum is down 0.2% to $2,700, XRP falls 0.8% to $1.49, and solana is down 1.2% to $119.81. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.067 percentage points to 5.35%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1309 ET - Fitch Ratings said North American theatrical exhibitors are being supported by improving box office trends and higher spending per patron. However, the sector's structural concerns remain key credit constraints, Fitch added. Structural headwinds including competition from streaming and dependence on film studios for content-supply. But fuller film slates and operating discipline are driving EBITDA growth and deleveraging, Fitch said. Premium large-format screens, attractive locations and strong concession economics put operators in a position to garner more revenue per visit, while smaller, less-well-capitalized operators, or those with inflexible cost structure, are more exposed to gaps in the slate, according to Fitch. (stephen.nakrosis@wsj.com)

1216 ET - Bitcoin is down 0.7% to $85,208, with low demand for the cryptocurrency from investors offsetting any positive momentum coming from reduced odds for an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's next meeting at the end of the month, says analysts for Bitget Wallet in a note. "A convincing move higher would require sustained ETF inflows, stronger spot buying and a daily or weekly close above roughly $87,400," says Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet. If the token can maintain these conditions, then prices could rise to above $90,000, said Zhang. Bitcoin ETFs ended last week with two straight days of ETF inflows, according to data from Coinglass. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1140 ET - The September ISM services survey highlights the Federal Reserve's dual mandate tensions. In the survey, the 'prices paid' index rose to its highest level since July 2022. "The ISM nonmanufacturing survey underscores the need for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in October and December as it seeks to unwind the rate cuts from 2025," a note from Oxford Economics said. Along with intensifying price pressures, the supplier deliveries index signaled slower delivery times, or additional supply stress. Meanwhile, Oxford Economics said the employment and business activity components point to a stable labor market. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1105 ET - Bitcoin's strong year-over-year returns are more linked to single days of strong moves, according to Zach Pandl of Grayscale in a note. Pandl says removing bitcoin's five best trading days reduces its three-year return from 225% to 95%, with the return falling to 27% without its 10 best days. If you remove the top fifteen days, it turns a three-year gain into an 11% loss. By comparison, removing the Nasdaq's fifteen best days reduces its cumulative return from 109% to 21%. "Given BTC's return and volatility profile, investors looking for long-term capital appreciation can avoid trying to time the market and instead seek consistent, long-term exposure to the asset," Pandl says. Bitcoin is down 0.2% to $85,610, while ethereum falls 0.2% to $2,701. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1100 ET - Political risk in Spain after snap elections were called could add to selling in eurozone government-bond markets, prompted by concerns over France's indebtedness and fragmented politics, says Aberdeen's Lizzy Galbraith in a note. "Spain has not been the epicentre of this episode, but its cost of borrowing has started to rise in sympathy with sharper moves in France and Italy." Spain's comparatively favourable debt dynamics leave its bond markets less exposed than France or Italy, however, Galbraith says. Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called for elections next month following housing crisis protests. Ten-year Spanish government-bond yields rise 3.9 basis points to 4.123%, according to Tradeweb. They hit 4.219% on Friday, the highest since December 2013. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

1044 ET - The Brazilian real strengthens 4.5% against the dollar and the Ibovespa stock index rises 9% after Sunday's right-wing surprise in the first round of general elections. Conservative Flavio Bolsonaro pulls ahead of leftist incumbent Lula da Silva and both are heading for a runoff on October 25, with the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro carrying momentum. A slew of conservative candidates wins seats across Congress and state governorships. The results fuel hopes among investors of fiscal austerity to rein in widening fiscal deficits, which could make it easier for the central bank to lower interest rates. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1032 ET - Non-oil business conditions strengthened in Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. in September, with purchasing managers' indexes for both economies at 55.3, Dubai's Emirates NBD Research says. The improvement points to resilient domestic demand despite higher costs and continued regional uncertainty. U.A.E. output rose to its strongest level since February, while Dubai's PMI climbed to 54.5, its highest since January. Emirates NBD says firms are increasingly passing higher input costs to customers, suggesting price pressures are becoming more visible even as demand remains firm. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1029 ET - The Brazilian election is heading into a runoff election for president later this month, and incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is now expected to lose to challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, who finished first in the general Brazilian elections held Sunday. U.S. grain futures are getting support from the result, thanks to a stronger Brazilian real in anticipation of a conservative victory in Brazil. "The Brazilian real is expected to gain today, which will harm the profitability of Brazilian farmers," says AgResource in a note. The firm adds that a stronger currency "will slow future Brazilian farmland expansion." CBOT corn is up 0.1%, soybeans rise 0.6%, and wheat climbs 1.7%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1022 ET - Over the next decade, Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation are expected to release 13.9 million homes, Realtor.com says. That's 34% more than older households did in the last 10 years. But first-time buyers shouldn't expect a windfall; nearly all of those homes are family-sized or larger. The pace climbs throughout the decade, and Boomers overtake the Silent Generation as the main source of inventory around 2029, with the peak likely coming after 2036. 380,000 starter homes are expected to be relinquished by these older cohorts, in part because owners of smaller homes are more likely to have paid off their mortgages and stay put. Today, Boomers and the Silent Generation live in an estimated 36.7 million homes they own. By 2036, Realtor.com expects that to drop to 22.8 million. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1021 ET - Higher interest rates are weighing on Gulf fixed-income markets without triggering a broader deterioration in investor appetite for regional credit, Kamco Invest says. GCC bond and sukuk, or Islamic bonds, issuance fell 17.5% on quarter to $42.5 billion in the third quarter, while the GCC Credit + High Yield Index lost 3.8%. However, GCC credit spreads ended the quarter at 88 basis points, roughly half the emerging-market average of 170 basis points. Kamco says the selloff reflects higher rates rather than concerns over Gulf credit quality, with sovereign deals from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar attracting orders two to five times their issue sizes. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0946 ET - The labor market remains too weak for an extended tightening cycle following Friday's less-than-expected September payroll gain of just 29,000, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics in a note. The economists see the Fed pausing at the October meeting, and think a December move is far from certain. "We expect the FOMC to become increasingly worried about the labor market over the next year. Whether that anxiety deters another hike in December is a close call. But we still expect the Committee to resume easing from mid-2027, as inflation subsides and the labor market disruption from AI becomes too big to ignore," they say. There should be insight on what policymakers were discussing when they raised rates last month when Fed minutes are released on Wednesday.