Corteva Stock Can Gain 50% After Post-Spin Confusion

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Corteva is on its own after spinning out its high-value seed technology business. Now, Wall Street sees value in shares of the small crop protection company.

Tuesday, JPMorgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas upgraded shares of Corteva to Buy from Hold. His price target went to $19 from $83. No, the target really wasn't cut by 77%. Corteva just split into two companies on Oct. 1, which is driving a lot of adjustments.

Corteva stock was up 3.1% at $12.77 in premarket trading, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively.

The stock plunged 84% on Oct. 1, but Vylor, the new company, which is DuPont's old seed and seed technology business once called Pioneer, closed at $68.26.

Investors got one share of Vylor for every share of Corteva, so on an adjusted basis, little changed.

Vylor is the higher-multiple, higher-growth, less commodity-oriented stock. Corteva's crop protection business generates value by investing in new products and formulations, but it faces relatively more pressure from commodity chemicals when products lose patent protection.

At current levels, Corteva stock is trading for about 6 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda). Zekauskas believes a fair multiple for a crop protection business with minimal debt is about 10 times. That makes Corteva worth about $14 billion, or $21 a share. He discounts that to $19 to account for some environmental liabilities. Still, his price target is about 50% higher than recent levels.

"We think that new Corteva has a conservative longer-term strategy," says Zekauskas. The company plans to license new crop chemical molecules from other industry participants, which can provide growth and above-average margins. "There is room for Corteva to improve the cost structure by $200 million annually," adds the analyst while pointing out that higher crop prices are good for the business.

Benchmark corn prices are about $5 per bushel, up 20% year over year.

It's a positive call, but not an out-of-consensus call. The most recent analyst price targets for Corteva stock average about $17, according to FactSet, up about 35% from recent levels.

It looks as if, in post-spin confusion, investors have gotten a new opportunity to pick up a chemical company at a discount.

 

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