Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
3 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1543 ET - Businesses are looking for an alternative to Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange and increasingly turning to the Lone Star State, Texas Stock Exchange CEO James Lee says on CNBC. "The movement of primary listings out of New York and into Texas is underway," he says, following Energy Transfer's Monday TXSE debut. Sunoco, USA Compression, and Dillard's are also moving from NYSE to Texas. The young exchange has also raised $430 million in capital to date, Lee says. "I think we're on the verge of the largest transfer of listings in history," he says. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)

1116 ET - The combination of Flávio Bolsonaro's surprise victory in the first round of Brazil's elections and the possibility of a Democratic sweep of the House of Representatives and Senate in the U.S. elections in November is seen as a source of support for markets, says Stephen Coltman of 21shares in a note. "Electoral politics are becoming impossible for investors to ignore," says Coltman. He also points out that rising bond yields in Europe carry the risk of "morphing into a credit contagion risk for euro zone sovereign bonds." Agricultural and precious metals futures are higher, as is the equity markets and base metals. Energy and cryptocurrencies are mixed in morning trade. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1102 ET - Brazilian stocks rally following a conservative surprise in Sunday's general elections. Presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro carries momentum in the runoff against leftist incumbent Lula da Silva, while conservative candidates win seats across Congress and state governorships. The results are perceived as market-friendly, fueling bets on reduced government spending and privatization. State-controlled oil producer Petrobras rises 6% in local currency and state bank Banco do Brasil is up 11%. In the private sector, digital bank Nu Holdings rises 14%. The Ibovespa stock index climbs 7%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1038 ET - Cenovus Energy is paying a fuller price for Athabasca Oil, but the cost of scaling up is likely worth it, according to TD Cowen's Menno Hulshof. In a report, the analyst says the company is paying a premium for "growth, resource depth and synergy potential." He says that the deal consolidates scalable thermal resources around Cenovus' Christina Lake area operations, with around C$85 million in synergies identified, which "CVE's upstream operating expertise could drive upside beyond." While the C$5.7 billion price tag is higher, Hulshof calls the cost inevitable "given it is one of the last remaining thermal plays and arguably carries a scarcity premium." (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1009 ET - A mild outlook for weather in the U.S. weighed on natural gas futures last week, and while that continues to be the case technical trading may be skewing futures toward the positive side, says BOK Financial in a note. "Quant funds have moved more to the short side, which could build a more bullish case longer term," says the firm in a note. "However without a real fundamental shift in demand the path of least resistance still looks lower." The most-active contract is up 0.3% in early trade. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0955 ET - Crude oil futures are lower, with the market seen at a sort of tentative equilibrium, says Aaron Kildow of Sparta Commodities in a note. "An uneasy calm has spread over the market," says Kildow. "Flows from Hormuz continue to impress and news of either Iranian or U.S. forces striking oil tankers no longer seems to have the same impact on oil futures markets as it did before." The U.S. dollar continues to trend stronger, which is applying pressure to the commodities markets as a whole. WTI crude is down 1.6%, and Brent crude is off 0.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0900 ET - Treasury yields are little changed from the high levels they ended at last week. The U.S.-Iran standoff keeps Brent crude above $100, while odds of a Fed hold this month rise to 81% from 78% Friday. No major data points are on tap today. The Treasury will auction three-year notes tomorrow, followed by a 10-year auction Wednesday and 30-year on Thursday. Fed minutes are due Wednesday. The 10-year yield is at 5.276% and the two-year at 4.821%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0826 ET - Cenovus' plan to buy Athabasca Oil is the latest step in a wave of consolidation in Canada's oil sands region. Major Canadian producers are locking up contiguous, long-life oil assets in the region as energy falls under the global spotlight. Domestically, the C$5.7 billion acquisition is bolstered by momentum for key export corridors like the proposed Pacific Link pipeline, which promises faster access to global markets. The deal comes about a year after Cenovus' takeover of MEG Energy, and continues the trend of solidifying its position in Alberta. Cenovus says the acquisition adds 45,000 barrels a day of immediate output and targets 115,000 barrels a day by 2032, allowing it to maximize operational scale, capture C$85 million in annual synergies and capitalize on expanding export access. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0808 ET - Suncor Energy's sale of interests in Eastern Canadian offshore assets for at least C$1.2 billion makes strategic sense, even if the transaction looks largely net present value-neutral, Raymond James' Michael Barth reckons. Suncor is selling its 48% interest in Terra Nova, 40% interest in White Rose and 38.6% interest in West White Rose offshore assets to Ithaca Energy. Barth notes Suncor also is transferring about C$1.4 billion of liabilities. The assets have a relatively short current life, and an exit frees up cash for share buybacks or accelerated growth in Suncor's core portfolio, the analyst says. Raymond James retains an outperform call and C$118 target on Suncor's shares. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)

0753 ET - Schneider Electric's $22.6 billion deal to buy PTC shouldn't raise major antitrust concerns, but politics could theoretically pose a threat, MKI Global Partners says. "PTC's software is widely used across the U.S. defense industrial base, and the buyer is French at a time when relations between Washington and Paris are poor, strained by disputes over Greenland, tariffs, digital regulation, the Middle East and other matters," MKI says. From an antitrust perspective, there is some overlap between Schneider and PTC's portfolios in industrial augmented reality software and electrical design software, but this is small and could be fixed with a sale, according to MKI. Schneider shares fall 9.8%, while PTC rises 37% in U.S. premarket trading. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0725 ET - Schneider Electric's proposed acquisition of Boston-based PTC marks the latest foray into software for a company that has shown repeated appetite for engineering-software assets, J.P. Morgan analysts say in a research note. "A completed deal would be a rare cross-border software transaction amid a marked sector slowdown as companies assess AI's implications for their business models," the analysts say. The $22.6 billion deal far eclipses the French industrial group's $11 billion purchase of Aveva in 2023 and its $3.1 billion agreement to acquire Cognite in June, the analysts add. For PTC, the price of the deal is in the same region as what was speculated last year with Autodesk, according to JPM. Schneider shares fall 9.9%, while PTC's surge 37% in U.S. premarket trading. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

0712 ET - Schneider Electric's proposed $22.6 billion acquisition of U.S. software maker PTC could have strategic merits, even if investors balk at the price, J.P. Morgan analysts say in a research note. "Large-scale [mergers and acquisitions are] typically unwelcome in the first instance by European investors, although Schneider Electric's deals have typically proven strategically astute, if debatable from a valuation standpoint," the analysts say. PTC moves Schneider's own Aveva to the front rank of design and lifecycle software from the periphery, they add. The French group's industrial-automation division--where Aveva resides--required some kind of action to reaffirm its position relative to peers and time will tell whether PTC serves that purpose, JPM says. Schneider shares fall 9.9%, while PTC is up 38% in U.S. premarket trading.

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