Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
55 mins ago

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1536 ET - Crude futures recover from early losses and settle fractionally higher with market optimism about increased shipments out of the Middle East tempered by continued conflict risk. Crude markets "recovered into the plus column but with upside still limited by the increased flow of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. Risk of renewed disruptions remain if Iran steps up attacks on vessels or the Houthis succeed in restricting crude movement through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, the firm adds. WTI settles up 1 cent at $89.44 a barrel and Brent edges up 0.3% to $100.58 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1519 ET - U.S. natural gas futures stretch gains to three sessions, supported by lower production, lingering cooling demand and LNG flows. Weather and LNG are the key demand factors, but "neither provides clear evidence of a new demand surge," Gelber & Associates says in a note. Colder conditions later in October could increase heating consumption, but if production recovers "November gas will have to rely more heavily on a sustained increase in demand to hold its advance above $3.10." Nymex gas for November delivery settles up 1.6% at $3.114/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1514 ET - Most-active live cattle futures on the CME rose 1.9% to $2.2405 a pound. It brings cattle to its highest since Aug. 12.The contract has been followingboxed beef prices, which have been rebounding in recent days. Today's higher close snaps a two-day losing streak for cattle futures, according to data from FactSet. Meanwhile, lean hog futures fell 0.8%, sliding to 70.375 cents a pound. Today's loss snaps a two-day winning streak for the hogs contract. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1450 ET - Gold futures snap a two-session losing streak as the U.S. dollar pulls back and yields ease. The outlook for gold remains fragile despite the recovery, Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com says in a note. "While dovish Federal Reserve repricing and lower oil prices in the last couple of days has provided some support, the metal is still undermined by the elevated yields and the risk that oil prices may rebound and create fresh volatility for financial markets," he says. Uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran situation is a source of pressure, while central bank buying means downside is also limited, he adds. Front month gold settles up 0.7% in New York at $4,159.20 a troy ounce. Silver gains 0.5% to $61.168 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1437 ET - U.S. farmers turned more pessimistic in September, thanks to higher input costs pressuring farmer's bottom lines. In the latest Ag Economy Barometer produced by Purdue University and the CME Group, farmer sentiment in September fell from 135 to 123. More farmers surveyed in September expect their finances to be 'worse off' a year from now than 'better', although many farmers do see some bright spots on the horizon. "While higher costs and financial pressures are clearly shaping producers' views of current conditions, strong expectations for farmland values point to a more positive outlook for some aspects of the agricultural economy," says Michael Langemeier of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1242 ET - Gold futures attempt a recovery as the U.S. dollar eases from yesterday's 18-month high. "Softer oil prices today are adding a further tailwind for bullion," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo says in a note. Lower expectations for a Fed October interest-rate increase are also supportive, she adds. "Attention now turns to Wednesday's FOMC minutes, which should offer more clarity on how divided policymakers are over the path ahead." Gold for December delivery is up 0.8% in New York at $4,190.30 a troy ounce. Silver is up 0.5% at $61.63 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1231 ET - CBOT wheat futures are up 1%, with more-intense fighting in the Black Sea creating a need for traders to lock in higher risk premiums for their contracts. "A fresh round of heavy Russian attacks on the Ukraine port complex in Odesa were reported," says Mike O'Dea of StoneX in a note. "But the main story was the sinking of a coaster vessel that had loaded corn in the Ukraine port of Izmail bound for Italy just off Romanian waters with some of the crew killed." The fresh wave of fighting may mean that no peace deal is around the corner, says O'Dea. Corn rises 1.7%, and soybeans are up 1.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1121 ET - President Trump's executive order temporarily allowing the use of red-dyed tax-free diesel by truckers who would normally use a taxed product is seen as having a limited benefit for U.S. farmers struggling with rising input costs. Red-dyed diesel is already being used by farmers to power farm machinery like tractors and combines, so the savings really goes to farmers transporting their harvests via trucks. But there's a way for this to backfire on farmers, says Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull in a note. "Opening those inventories to additional highway customers could also increase competition for supplies at rural distributors during harvest," he says. Corn rises 0.9%, soybeans are up 0.9%, and wheat climbs 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1106 ET - Large trucking operators probably won't take advantage of the federal tax deferral for on-road use of dyed diesel given the complications, GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan says on X. "Interstate trucking means a patchwork of state rules and tax headaches, and most major truck stops don't sell dyed diesel," he says. For most diesel users the deferral of the 24.4 cents a gallon excise tax won't change much at the pump, he adds. "Big fleets will likely sit this out." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1047 ET - U.S. diesel futures are lower after President Trump signed an order allowing temporary on-road use of dyed-red diesel with the corresponding federal excise tax deferred through the end of the year, and the deferred payment possibly later eliminated. "Red diesel" is untaxed for off-road use such as in farming and construction. The latest measure that seeks to reduce prices for truckers "appears to be adding to today's shift in diesel futures leadership back to the downside and away from the upside," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. But the measure "appears to be another band aid" as the diesel problem is driven mainly by disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz, the firm adds. Nymex diesel is off 2.6% at $4.4295 a gallon. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1032 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME are up 0.5% in early trading, with the most-active contract seen as rangebound. In a note, AgResource says that trading is expected to be steady-to-weaker for cattle, this after cattle futures posted two consecutive losing days and dipped under the $2.20/lb mark. Trading has been locked within a range of $2.19/lb to $2.23/lb in recent sessions, according to data from FactSet. However, boxed beef prices turned higher on Monday, something which typically gives futures support as well. Lean hog futures are trading down 1.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1024 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher for a third straight session. "Nymex natural gas continues to find support from production weakness and searing late-season Western heat," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Weather support may slip in the near term with the demand from cool Northeast weather and heat in the West set to fade, along with risk of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf, he adds. Natural gas for November delivery is up 1.9% at $3.124/mmBtu.

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